Reds & Rays

Submitted by: ShaquilleOatmeal

Reds

NameAgeLevelP1P2AvailabilityYearsAFVSalarySurplusLowMedianHigh
Jose Caballero27Majors2BUTIL4.311.14.36.85.46.88.2
Jonathan Aranda27Majors1BDHMedium4.364.23529.223.429.235.1

Total Value:

36

Rays

NameAgeLevelP1P2AvailabilityYearsAFVSalarySurplusLowMedianHigh
Matt McLain24Majors2B4.32715.611.49.111.413.6
Hector Rodriguez20MinorsOF0007.45.97.48.9
Sammy Stafura19MinorsSS0006.75.46.78.1
Rhett Lowder22MajorsSP5.33313.419.715.719.723.6

Total Value:

45.2

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ShaquilleOatmeal

Painful move, as Aranda has just broken out. I'm making this move betting that Aranda regresses some next year, as a lot of his statcast data shows a very skilled hitter, lacking in some God given abilities. Poor bat speed, horrific base runner, but really, really good at hitting the ball hard by making good contact. I believe him to be a very good hitter, but I don't believe he will repeat as being basically the best hitters in the game not named Judge, Soto, Ohtani. He's carrying a .410 BABIP heading into August and doesn't really hit for power (among the top 50 batters by wRC+, Aranda's .165 ISO is 2nd worst behind Gleyber Torres.) Aranda is pretty similar to Freddie Freeman right now, so I'm not trying to undersell him, just offering my opinion as to why I'm open to moving him. If it's a career year, don't waste it on the Rays winning 80 games. The Reds get 4.5 years of one of the best hitters in baseball this year, and a new 2nd baseman that will duplicate what McClain has done this year. As for the Rays, a fantastic pitching prospect that I don't think is available, but Aranda would make him available. They also get a gold glove SS/2b/CF playing really poorly in Matt McLain. The hope is for a bounce back season in 2026 and beyond, and he'd be the SS in 2026 if the Rays can move Kim. Even with a poor offensive season, his speed and defense still has him on pace for almost a 2 WAR season. Like Walls, if he hits league average, he gets MVP votes. A 120 wRC+, he might win the damn thing. But unlike Walls, he's capable of both of those goals. Hector Roriguez and Sammy Stafura each might make a top 100 list by the end of the year. Overall, both teams give up a ton. I like the Reds adding a superstar bat to try to make the postseason in Elly's prime. They have so much young pitching, they can part with such a good talent in Lowder. Caballero doesn't have the peak potential of McLain, but he's every bit as capable of replacing McLains 2025 production. The Rays get a haul, and if McLain puts up a 3 win season in 2026, might break even on this trade before any of the prospects even debut for them.

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