Rays & White Sox
Submitted by: ShaquilleOatmeal
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colson Montgomery | 24 | Majors | SS | 4 | 64 | 43.5 | 20.5 | 16.4 | 20.5 | 24.6 |
Total Value:
20.5
White Sox
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre' Morgan | 23 | Minors | 1B | OF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20.1 | 16.1 | 20.1 | 24.1 |
Total Value:
20.1
Comments
2
Hey John. Colson Montgomery's value has to be way off, right? It says 4 years. I believe he still has 6 years of control. He also just had a nearly 3 win season in just 70 games with a 129 wRC+, while playing gold glove defense. I think $75M FV has to be the absolute bare minimum for him, no? I can't imagine an updated projection seeing him as anything less than 3 fWAR in 2026. A 129 wRC+ with a .263 BABIP is incredibly impressive. Add in pedigree of a 1st round pick...teams would kill to get a franchise SS for this valuation.
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Thanks for the catch. It's updated. New surplus value is 28.7. If he continues to play that well, it will certainly climb, but right now the MLB sample size is still on the small side, and his prospect value is still carrying a lot of weight (it's blended for the first two years in our model). In other words, you can't just extrapolate from the MLB sample -- you have to allow for mean reversion to a degree.