Rays & Reds
Submitted by: ShaquilleOatmeal
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt McLain | 26 | Majors | 2B | 4 | 38.5 | 22.4 | 16.2 | 12.9 | 16.2 | 19.4 | ||
| Zach Maxwell | 25 | Majors | SP | 6 | 2.4 | 0 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.9 |
Total Value:
18.60
Reds
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Lowe | 28 | Majors | OF | Low | 3 | 21.6 | 14.5 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 8.5 | |
| Tre' Morgan | 23 | Minors | 1B | OF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20.1 | 16.1 | 20.1 | 24.1 |
Total Value:
27.20
Comments
6
McLain might fill a need for the Rays but there’s no reason to overpay for him. He’s not a no-doubt improvement for the Rays.
As for pitching development, you point to a few relievers who came to the Rays with ML experience and took their game to a higher level with Rays coaching. I’m looking at the T.Bradley, S.Baz, J.Boyle, R.Lesko starting pitcher types and wondering why these guys are failing to fully develop (or in Lesko’s case, pitch well enough to justify his roster spot in the minors). The Rays rotation next year could be historically bad if McClanny can’t pitch or can’t pitch well, or if Ras’ arm falls off (I give both a 50-50 chance of happening). I really like the pitchers the Rays have assembled in the minors, but I also liked Baz and Bradley.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
I think JLowe has negative value, and Tre Morgan is pretty much a non prospect for me. Tre Morgan is massively overvalued in this exercise. A 1st baseman with a .130 ISO in 500 AA and AAA PA over multiple seasons? That would embarrass Taylor Walls. I don't have him in my top 15 Rays prospects. He certainly doesn't have MORE value than Aranda. I think you could take McLain out of the trade and I still do the deal. Maxwell is a stud. Triple digits,good movement on the slider, awful command. Kind of a RH Jose Alvarado. Kyle Snyder has had good luck working some fluidity into his big pitchers. McLain's defense is so good, he's a 2 win SS/2B/CF with a 90 wRC+. If he reverts to his 2023 pre-injury self, he's a star. This is far from an overpay in my opinion. It's a player who should have been non-tendered and James Loney-light.
I’ve lost faith in the Rays ability to fix pitching, so a lack of control is a problem for me. On the other hand, I’m not worried about Morgan’s lack of power. He has an above average hit tool and well above average defense. And maybe Morgan joins the hundred lefty outfielders the Rays have assembled.
I only care about first base defense when it's really really bad. I'll never go "that first baseman's a really good defender, who cares if he's only a league average bat". That league average bat needs to take his gold glove to Korea, because my first baseman's got to mash. {Second paragraph} --- I disagree big time on pitching development, Snyder's ability to convey the changes he and the organization believe will make the player more successful. Just in the last 2 or 3 years, guys like Stephenson, Littell, Adam, and Uceta have transformed from being AAAA guys in their 10th professional season to legitimate contributors on $20+MM contracts. If you look back at our top pitching prospects in 2020, two of their arms fell off (Honey McKay), two were traded before their MLB debut (JRyan, SethJ), and 2 became among the best in the sport MClan Fairbanks). The front office has decided to stop drafting pitchers in the top five rounds, and have traded away Joe Ryan and Chris Sanchez. Snyder is getting handed scrub after scrub and asked to assemble a playoff pitching staff. Taj and Baz failed, but I've always thought Baz was a reliever. Looks like we finally have some studs in the system, and I like our chances of churning out some really solid arms. As much as I am down on the whole organization right now, there's an alternate universe where Wander isn't gross, McLan and Ras didn't get hurt, one of Bitsko/McKay/Baz/Taj turned into something, Chris Morel was deemed untouchable by the Cubs, Carson Williams was moved for Cease or Crochet, and the Rays are coming off like 4 World Series appearances in 5 years. I hope this crop of prospects develop better than the last crop of undersized scrubs like Mead, Brujan, Jones, Fox etc. Get me some prospects with some pop dammit!
Yeah, I hate the Rays recent draft style. They won’t take a chance on the high upside pitching prospects in the early rounds anymore, but they have no problem overdrafting the no-bat, all defense “never-gonna-be” middle infielders or the all bat no defense middle infielders who really should be 1B/DH types if their bats develop (which they don’t with the Rays).