Nationals
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abimelec Ortiz | 24 | Minors | 1B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.7 | ||
| Alejandro Rosario | 25 | Minors | SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 8.6 | ||
| Devin Fitz-Gerald | 20 | Minors | 2B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 8.1 | ||
| Gavin Fien | 19 | Minors | SS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 11.6 | 13.9 | ||
| Yeremy Cabrera | 20 | Minors | OF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.8 |
Total Value:
29.2
Rangers
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MacKenzie Gore | 27 | Majors | SP | Low | 2 | 58.7 | 14 | 44.7 | 35.7 | 44.7 | 53.6 |
Total Value:
44.7
Comments
22
Light return -- quantity over quality. New head honcho with the Nats wants to load up on youth.
💁🏼♀️ This is surprising, two years of an inexpensive SP Gore to the Rangers, didn’t see that one coming.
And not a single Top 100 prospect in the package.
Fien has an unorthodox swing that many scouts are skeptical of; Rosario is down with TJS, which he waited too long for; Fitz-Gerald has a little buzz; the other two are throw-ins. So there isn't really a big name here to carry this. The Rangers did well, not giving up much that they'll miss.
There feels like something is amiss about this trade, Gore’s medicals?
Not that we've heard. The Nats must see more to like in this package than the consensus.
Word is they are (very) high on Fein
I have spoken to a few people behind the scenes who LOVE Fien because of his metrics. His development will be interesting. I could simply see WSN valued him much more, and Ortiz also had very good metrics last year in AAA.
Clearly why they did the deal. The rest are just lotto tickets/throw ins.
Would not have expected to see such a light haul in the wake of the Peralta deal.
Gore will fit in rotation at Texas and will not feel pressure of having to be ace. He may learn some coping skills from veteran Ranger pitchers. The return was confusing to me because I don't really know these 5 players. I have read reports/comments/opinions. None are door busters.
I'm going to be in the minority, but Gore's value is way higher than it should be. He's been a number 3 starter his entire career but has shown signs of being a number 2. Gavin Fien was the 12th overall pick and that value could be much higher by July. Texas might lose this trade, but they're win now.
Fien has wide error bars -- yes, he has pedigree, but according to prospect evaluators we follow, the big issue is that he has an unorthodox swing that, if not fixed, will likely be exposed at higher levels. The Nats must be confident they can fix him. On Gore, the numbers are what they are -- he's projected to put up over 5 fWAR over the next two seasons at minimum, at a very cheap arb salary -- and as we have seen all winter, the market value for good starting pitching continues to rise, as demand exceeds supply.
I think my only gripe is that Gore's value feels a little high, even with 2 years control. His savant page leaves much to be desired compared to someone like Joe Ryan. Ryan's value is only 9 points higher, and it feels like it should be a larger margin.
On Rosario: yes, he's talented, but he will have missed all of 2025 and all of 2026. He's rule 5-eligible, so he'll need to be added to the 40 for protection in December, despite the injuries. The Nats will then have to burn options in 2027 and 2028, and possibly 2029 as well, as he works his way back from surgery, then up through AA and AAA. All of which means he'll be taking up roster spots for a while and limiting their flexibility. Not a great situation from a roster standpoint, and that all hurts his value.
This trade is extremely reliant on the new Nats development team actually developing the single A players into MLB types. Also, even if Fien does become a breakthrough player, he'll be entering the bigs just as James Wood's controllability ends. I would suggest there's a reasonable chance DC have traded Wood by then and so the process begins again. A trade for Gore needed to involve players higher up the minor leagues but for the Nats to truly compete, let alone contend in '28 in what looks like being a very tough NL East, the ownership have to commit to at least one Jayson Werth-type signing to complement the core being developed. I honestly can't see that happening if the Lerners are still in charge as they have their World Series win and don't seem to have anything like the same commitment they once had.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
Especially as you can make a Carter-Scarborough-Fien package work to a tee in the sim. For Gore, the inclusion of Scarborough would be a precondition for me. But the coming lockout is a variable that must be influencing discussions on players with 2-3 yr time horizons. The Nats project to 66 wins this season, and 2027 might be vaporware given how far sides stand apart.
Good point. We haven't seen that concern manifest in the free agent market, but it's possible it's a factor in trade discussions.
Though I do think recent short term FA contracts, and particularly the structure of a contract like Bellinger's (substantial signing bonus, opt out after the lockout year) are factoring in both a potential lost year and future CBA changes. But yes, if you're looking at trade pieces who are free agents after '27, the value going back might be viewed as having a significant half-life after this season.
They won't miss games. Everything you're hearing now is pre-negotiation bluster. The next CBA will be agreed to on or around March 1, like the last one. It will look shockingly similar to the previous one, just with the tax thresholds raised a bit and perhaps some stiffer penalties for low payroll teams that don't use the revenue sharing money. There will probably be a new 'Dodgers Tax' threshold at like $330 million or something that will have extremely punitive penalties that will serve as a de facto cap.