Now that this winter’s offseason is more or less over, let’s review: How well did our model correlate to the trade market?

 

Results:

• Number of trades: 83
• Number accepted by our model: 73
• Acceptance rate: 88%
• Average value variance per deal: 3.3

 

So 88% is a touch under our model’s long-term track record of 93.2% acceptance (with a 2.2 variance), but it’s close. As always, we study the results to see if there are any areas where we can improve. That said, we also know the trade market is inherently inefficient, and there are multiple variables involved. Now let's break it down:

 

Clear wins:

Significant trades on which our model was very close – aka “fair deals” (bigger names in bold):

Andrew Kittredge, Mason Black, Robinson Ortiz, Tristan Gray, Alex Hoppe, Brennan Bernardino, Chris Murphy, Eric Orze, Steven Wilson, Mauricio Dubon, Alex Jackson, Johan Oviedo*, Joey Wiemer, Vaughn Grissom, Yoneil Curet, Daniel Susac, Ryan Watson, Carter Baumler, Chase Lee, Isaac Collins/Angel Zerpa, Matt Strahm, Shane Baz, Jeff McNeil, Dane Myers, Esteury Ruiz, Eric Wagaman, Justin-Henry Malloy, Jake McCarthy, Ryan Weathers, Franklin Gomez, Yosver Zulueta, Gavin Lux, Bradley Blalock, Vidal Brujan, Angel Chivilli, Eduard Julien, Kai-Wei Teng, Jordan Hicks, Brandon Williamson*, Blaze Alexander, Victor Mesa Jr., Andre Granillo, Anthony Banda, Jesus Sanchez

 

Near-wins:

Significant trades marginally accepted by our model as overpays within reason:

Marcus Semien/Brandon Nimmo, Jose Ferrer/Harry Ford, Kyle Backhus, Edward Cabrera, Josh Lowe, Freddy Peralta, Brendan Donovan

 

Misses:

Trades rejected by our model as unreasonable overpays:

Taylor Ward/Grayson Rodriguez, Sonny Gray*, Luis Perales/Jake Bennett, Brandon Lowe*, Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado, Luis Robert Jr, Mackenzie Gore, Caleb Durbin

 

(*Part of a three-way trade, which we scored by breaking them up into two pieces.)

 

Overall, it was an active trade market this winter, perhaps buoyed by the lack of superstar power in the free agent market. Let’s examine a few trendlines:

 

Common themes

 

A few front-line starters got moved

No, Tarik Skubal was not traded – which did not surprise us, because his valuation is sky-high, and no one wanted to give up that much for one year of control, no matter how good the player. Despite a few rumors, Cole Ragans also stayed put, for similar reasons. 

That created a market for the more attainable top-of-the-rotation starters on teams who tend to be more transactional – Freddy Peralta, Shane Baz, Edward Cabrera, and Mackenzie Gore all got moved, for packages that were reasonably fair. Mysteriously, Joe Ryan stayed put, possibly due to turmoil in the front office in Minnesota.

 

Yes, Virginia, it IS possible to move an underwater contract

All credit to Cardinals’ President of Baseball Operations Chaim Bloom, who showed that he could deal overly paid veterans, even if they have no-trade clauses. Bloom was able to move Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, and Willson Contreras by eating enough money to make them attractive to their respective buyers – all of whom received a quality veteran at a reduced salary. The key here was that all three still had some field value – which means they could still be productive to their acquiring teams, for the right price. 

On the flip side – but proving the point – the Phillies couldn’t find a taker for Nick Castellanos, even after offering to eat a big chunk of his salary, because in his case, he had zero field value. That’s really what it comes down to.

 

Rays gonna Rays

This year’s theme for the always-transactional Rays was to get involved in three-ways. Have a framework of a deal worked out with another team but can’t quite agree on the pieces? Send a text to Rays' front office head Erik Neander. He’ll supply the missing ingredients, and close the deal like a stock broker. The Rays got involved most prominently in two major deals – between the Astros and Pirates; and between the Cardinals and Mariners. 

For the most part, their trades make sense: they moved pieces you’d expect – Brandon Lowe, who had declining control; Josh Lowe, who had declining performance numbers; and Shane Baz, because they knew they could sell high on him. But other times, it felt like they were trading just to trade – acquiring middling names like Gavin Lux, Jacob Melton, and Steven Wilson for reasons unclear.

 

Nationals’ rebuild

Under new front office honcho Paul Toboni, the Nats committed to a full rebuild, as their trades fit a clear pattern: trade any veteran with surplus value for prospects. The trades of Gore and Ferrer fit that mold, with the Gore trade in particular netting quantity over quality. Yet CJ Abrams is still on the roster – it may only be a matter of time until he goes.

 

Red Sox’ pitching carousel

Boston’s President of Baseball Operations Craig Breslow was busy wheeling and dealing. Interestingly, he started by adding to what was already a deep rotation by acquiring Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo, then dealt from the bottom and middle of his depth chart to strengthen his team in other ways, in trades for the likes of infielders Willson Contreras and Caleb Durbin.

In all, he traded away back-end starters Richard Fitts, Brandon Clarke, Hunter Dobbins, Kyle Harrison, and Luis Perales, as well as swingman Jordan Hicks, to fortify the big-league roster. And he still has one of the deepest rotations in baseball, after augmenting at the top by signing Ranger Suarez.

 

Health is still a black box

In one of the first deals of the offseason, the Orioles traded former top prospect Grayson Rodriguez to the Angels for veteran outfielder Taylor Ward – a deal that looked lopsided in the Angels’ favor. The big issue here was the injury history of Rodriguez. If he’s remotely healthy, he’s easily worth a lot more than Ward, given that he has four years of control compared to one for Ward, who’s in his final arbitration year and therefore much more expensive in salary terms.

It was a reminder that, from a modeling perspective, we can only estimate based on history and projections. We don’t have access to players’ medicals. But the Orioles do, and they may have seen enough of Rodriguez to make this an injury dump.

 

Rockies show a pulse

The worst team in baseball finally decided to take a new approach and hire some fresh blood to run their front office. They really didn’t have much to trade, though, so they spent the offseason mostly transacting around the edges – their biggest trade acquisition was veteran Jake McCarthy, who is at best a 4th outfielder on most teams. Still, some movement is better than no movement.

 

Rumor mill gonna rumor mill

Several players whose names received a lot of trade chatter did not move – Jarren Duran, Isaac Paredes, Ketel Marte, etc. – in large part because teams couldn’t agree on the prices. For example, it became clear that Boston was not moving off of their high price for Duran; ditto for the D’Backs and Marte; and Houston was trying to get more for Paredes than was warranted. As we all know, it takes two to tango, so even if teams float a few names to journalists, it doesn’t mean they’ll find a taker at the price they want. Best to take all rumors with a grain of salt.