Isaac Paredes has been one of the most-rumored trade candidates this offseason, largely because the Astros have an infield glut, and they’re not sure where to play him. They’ve been in serious discussions with multiple teams, yet Spring Training has begun, and Paredes is still an Astro.    What gives?   Surplus value First off, the Astros are probably seeking more value in trade than our estimated surplus value of $13.6M. But let’s break that down: He has only...

Recently, Jose Ramirez signed a surprising extension with the Guardians, overriding his previous contract. The new one simply pays him $25M per year, for seven years, through his age-39 season. The Guardians are the only team he’s ever played for, and clearly, he wants to keep it that way. So how does it look on paper? Short answer: it’s great for the team. Partly, that’s because it’s not really $25M per year. There are deferrals in the deal – $10M per year, paid...

We’re fast approaching the Nov. 21 deadline for all MLB teams to tender player contracts. So which players are likely to be left out and non-tendered? We can leverage our model for clues. We’ve noticed that most teams will use surplus value as a key method for determining whether a player is worth what he’s expected to receive in arbitration – if he projects to be worth more than that number, he’s pretty certain to get a contract; if he’s under that number,...

Now that the deadline has passed, we can see more clearly that some teams didn't fill all their needs. In particular, the Cubs and Red Sox both needed a top-of-the-rotation starter, and didn't get one. Both are being criticized now for being too value-conscious, and/or too difficult to negotiate with. So let's play some woulda coulda shoulda, and see what might have been.   The Cubs It’s tough to envision the Cubs going deep into the playoffs with a rotation of Matthew Boyd, Colin...

How did our model do at the 2025 deadline?   Starting with the Josh Naylor trade, here’s the scorecard:   Number of trades: 64 Number accepted by the model: 57 Acceptance rate: 88% Average value variance per deal: 3.5   We’re pretty happy with that. The trade market is inherently inefficient, and there are multiple variables involved, so to go 57-7 feels good. Also, it’s a bit of an improvement on last year, where our acceptance rate was 83% and the average...

Each week, we update the values on our site. As we inch closer to the trade deadline, we’ll monitor the changes in value, both for obvious trade candidates and others that could be. This is an ongoing series. Notable movers this week (all values below are in $Ms) with trendline arrows indicating whether their value is improving or declining:   Prominent trade candidates Jarren Duran Field value: 94.1 Salary owed: 40 Surplus: 54.1 (⬇️) The Rafael Devers trade may have cooled off...

Each week, we update the values on our site. As we inch closer to the trade deadline, we’ll monitor the changes in value, both for obvious trade candidates and others that could be. This is an ongoing series. Notable movers this week (all values below are in $Ms) with trendline arrows indicating whether their value is improving or declining:   Prominent trade candidates Jarren Duran Field value: 102.7 Salary owed: 40.3 Surplus: 62.5 (⬇️) Duran has been in the rumor mill of late,...

Each week, we update the values on our site. As we inch closer to the trade deadline, we’ll monitor the changes in value, both for obvious trade candidates and others that could be. This is an ongoing series. Notable movers this week (all values below are in $Ms) with trendline arrows indicating whether their value is improving or declining:   Trade candidates   Luis Robert Jr. Field value: 13 Salary owed: 11.7 Surplus: 1.3 (⬆️) Robert has perked up a tiny bit (maybe...

Each week, we update the values on our site. As we inch closer to the trade deadline, we’ll monitor the changes in value, both for obvious trade candidates and others that could be. This is an ongoing series. Notable movers this week (all values below are in $Ms) with trendline arrows indicating whether their value is improving or declining:   Trade candidates   Luis Robert Jr. Field value: 12.6 Salary owed: 12.3 Surplus: 0.3 (⬇️) Robert continues to trend down, because as...

Each week, we update the values on our site. As we inch closer to the trade deadline, we’ll monitor the changes in value, both for obvious trade candidates and others that could be. This will be an ongoing series. Notable movers this week (all values below are in $Ms) with trendline arrows indicating whether their value is improving or declining:   Trade candidates Luis Robert Jr. Field value: 14.4 Salary owed: 12.8 Surplus: 1.6 (⬇️) Despite some improvement, Robert is still...